Inflation: The real story.
We’re not in a crisis, but we’re not in the clear. Inflation isn’t the emergency, but economic fragility is.
Inflation Isn’t the Crisis.
Inflation isn’t new. It’s not rare. In fact, the U.S. economy is designed to have a little bit of inflation.
The Federal Reserve targets around 2%. Why? Because a small, steady rise in prices is a sign the economy is working. Wages grow, businesses invest, and good shit happens.
The June 2025 CPI (inflation) data was released today. Prices are up 2.7% over the past year. Core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy) is at 2.9%. Not great, but not outrageous either. I address the details and drivers of the new inflation numbers in another post.
So why is inflation still making headlines? Because wage growth, business investment, and consumer spending are under extreme pressure. All because of competing narratives, the truthful ones and the spin ones.
The cost of living story has changed.
This isn’t about numbers anymore. It’s about context:
We’re still recovering from a once in a century inflation shock caused by a pandemic, global supply chain discombobulation , and price hikes driven by f&%#*+g corporate greed.
Trust is frayed. People were lied too, told inflation was “transitory.” That it would fall faster. That prices would come back down. They haven’t.
Tariffs are rising. That’s pushing cost and prices up. Businesses are running out of their pre tariff inventory. Business profits are getting threatened.
The world trade system is shifting. With reshoring, and trade partners weary of doing business with us, and a new round of industrial policies, things are getting more expensive to produce and it is by design, bad design.
Politics. The current environment is full of noise, spin, and most importantly, policy uncertainty.
So what does the current 2.7% inflation really mean?
It means we are not back to normal. It means we are in a new normal. Inflation today is mild, and people feel it.
And now, more price pressure is building again:
Tariffs.
Food.
Utility costs.
Healthcare and rent.
Supply chains re-alignment.
That’s why we’re still talking about inflation. Not because the numbers are wild, but because the foundation under those numbers is shifting, unstable.
What does all this mean?
We’re not in crisis mode, but we’re not in the clear either.
Inflation isn’t the emergency, economic fragility is.
Prices are rising, and they’re stacked on top of a 3-year surge. And now we are layering in new pressures from tariffs and cost of housing , utilities, food, and healthcare.
And no one in power seems eager to talk about that unless it’s to say, ‘it’s the other guy’s fault.’
‘Inflation is no longer the main threat, economic fragility is.’
That’s the story and I will keep watching it, debunking it, and writing about it.
Stay sharp. Be skeptical. Call out the bullshit.
Follow Econ Without the Ego on Substack where I break it all down without spin or jargon.
George.
