June 2025 Jobs Report: A Quiet Month, But Still Worth Your Attention.

The core mission of Econ Without the Ego is to help folks understand what these reports actually are, what they measure, and what the headline numbers mean.

June 2025 Jobs Report: A Quiet Month, But Still Worth Your Attention.

The June 2025 BLS Employment Situation Report was released today (July 3), and honestly, not much changed from May.

In a time when every economic data release is framed as either disaster or celebration, boring can mean stability. So instead of chasing a headline this month, I want to go back to the basics.

With Econ Without the Ego, my core mission is to help folks understand what these reports are, what they measure, and what these numbers mean to you, the economy, and our future.

Let’s peel back the onion, this boring report and talk about what it says about the state of our labor market…and what it doesn’t.

Headline Numbers: Quiet on the Surface

• Unemployment rate: 4.1%
  It’s been hovering between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year now. That feels “normal” because we’ve gotten used to it.

• People with jobs: 163.5 million
  That number has barely changed throughout 2025. On a year-over-year basis, the employed population has grown by just under 1%.

• Here’s why that matters:

We generally need at least 1.5% job growth just to support basic economic expansion. Higher growth around 2% or more would actually move the needle for GDP and help drive real, shared gains.

Why Jobs Still Matter So Much

Jobs = income = spending = demand = GDP.
When job growth stalls, it doesn’t just mean fewer paychecks, it often signals the economy is slowing down or plateauing.

A flat job market means we’re not adding new workers into the system. That makes it harder for GDP to grow—unless other parts of the economy (like productivity, exports, or government spending) are doing more of the work.

This doesn’t mean a recession is imminent but we’re definitely not in the booming labor market we saw just a year ago. If this trend continues, it could signal that we’re coasting on fumes.

That brings up a bigger question:
What’s the federal strategy to boost employment?

The recently passed “Big Beautiful Budget Plan” includes no clear direction or investment to meaningfully increase the number of employed people. Instead, it leans on unrealistic, unsupported growth projections that I call economic wish-casting.

Wishing doesn’t fund jobs. Policy does. But I digress.

Other Key Data from June’s Report

Payrolls: Up, But Just Barely

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs, right in line with the 12-month average of 146,000.

• Nearly all of the gains came from state government, health care, and social services.

• Federal government jobs continued to shrink.

• Most other sectors were flat.

Note: “Nonfarm payrolls” is just a decades-old term that means “everyone but farm workers, military, and a few other categories.” In plain English: regular people, regular jobs.

Wages and Hours:

• Average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-over-year.
  Sounds decent, but...

• Average weekly hours declined slightly.
  So even if you’re making more per hour, you may be working less meaning your total paycheck isn’t growing as much as it sounds.

Long-Term Unemployment: Quietly Growing

• Long-term unemployed (out of work for 27+ weeks) increased by 190,000 people.

• Now makes up 23.3% of all unemployed, or about 1.6 million Americans.

That’s a serious concern. The longer someone’s out of work, the harder it is for them to return and the more drag it puts on the entire economy.

Not Counted: 6 Million Americans.

• Roughly 6 million people are not working and not counted as unemployed—because they’re not currently looking or are unavailable to work.

• This number has stayed flat, but it adds vital context when you hear “low unemployment.”

Final Thought:

This was a quiet report. But “quiet” doesn’t mean “nothing to see here.”

It’s a chance to ask better questions:

• Why is job growth slowing?

• Who’s still being left behind?

• What would it take to move the needle?

When you zoom out, a month like this one can tell you more than a headline drama/spike ever will.

No panic. No cheerleading. Just perspective.

George

Econ Without the Ego.