Money Lies. Increasing Prices. Economic Fragility. Oh My!
We got headlines about tariff wins, tax relief, and cheaper imports. But look below the surface, and you find something else entirely…the middle class is getting hit from all sides.
Here is my take on this week’s U.S. money news.
The Week in Spin: Three big misleading, dumb memes from Trump and the GOP:
“No Tax on Tips, Overtime, or Social Security.” Until You Read the Fine Print.
July 15, 2025. The GOP National Party shared a meme: “5 BIG WINS FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS” bragging about the disastrous so-called Big Beautiful Bill, highlighting tax cuts. Trump and the GOP promised full tax exemptions on tips, overtime, and Social Security. Instead, we got small, temporary credits with limits, fine print, and expiration dates. These insulting and little impact tax breaks end, terminate, go away just as he leaves office…how convenient.
The meme the GOP National Party posted, is walking back their promise and calling them ‘reductions’ and ‘deductions.’ Translation: You were misled, lied too. You’re still paying.
Indonesia Trade Deal…Or Just a Tariff Hike with a PR Bow?
July 16, 2025. Trump continued exaggerating the value and progress on his ‘ruin the economy tariff’ project. “This morning I finalized an important deal with the Republic of Indonesia…” Trump posted. A closer look and… the deal isn’t finalized. The ‘frame work’ has tariffs on imports from Indonesia jumping from 3.3% to 19%, adding over $5 billion a year in new costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. In exchange? Promises. On going negotiations.
Indonesia ranks 21st among our trading partners, small potatos. Where’s the big boy deals, China, Canada, the EU? Call the Indonesia what it is… a headline with a price tag. Welcome to the Art of No Deal.
$100 Billion in Tariff Revenue Collected. But Who Really Paid?
July 14, 2025. Trump talking out of his butt again, touting the $100 billion raised from tariffs since his trade war began. What he will not say is that the money came from U.S. companies and consumers, not foreign governments. A tax by any other name is still a tax.
Even Foxbusiness.com says so… “As the Trump administration touts rising tariff revenue, it’s U.S. businesses that pay those higher import taxes to the federal government.” (July 14, 2025)
Latest Economic Indicator Report.
June CPI (Inflation): Another Tick Up
The June inflation report (CPI) was released this week. Prices are still rising, duh. Headline CPI sits at 2.7%, and core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is up to 2.9%. The highest since February. If you pay rent, eat meat, or keep the lights on, you’re probably feeling more than 2.9% (price increases hit the majority of households way harder than they do to the minority higher income households).
Energy prices reversed course and rose sharply driven by electricity and natural gas.
Food keeps rising steadily, especially meat and seafood.
Shelter and healthcare? Still climbing. (guess who owns the housing rentals and healthcare suppliers?)
Add to that the ripple effects from rising import costs and tariffs, and it’s clear: the squeeze isn’t over. If you're hearing that “inflation is cooling,” ask: whose inflation?
When Trump was asked about the inflation report, he deflected and started trashing the federal reserve. When will the press get some balls courage and ask tough follow-up questions?
George takes a stinky…deeper dive.
Inflation Isn’t the Crisis Anymore
Prices are still rising slowly, but rising. Don’t let the big bad inflation numbers distract us. That’s not the real story anymore. The real story is fragility, economic fragility. We are layering new structural costs (tariffs, housing, food, healthcare) into the system.
This isn’t a headline crisis. It’s something worse: slow, quiet economic pressure with no real plan for relief. We need to start demanding policies and budgets that address our cost of living, a change to the cost structure…dam it Jim, if not the Enterprise will crash and crash hard. Link is below for more on this topic.
Did the White House Just Say Tariffs Aren’t Inflationary?
That’s the impression left by the Council of Economic Advisors’ (CEA) July report: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper.”
Bullshit.
It’s more political narrative than economic truth. The data is cherry-picked, seasonally adjusted into submission, and conveniently skims over that tariff revenue collections don’t even show up in their price indexes.
I ran the numbers, I did my spreadsheets. The price drops they highlight…most happened before the March 2025 tariff hikes. Since then, import prices have started climbing again, especially if you exclude the volatile fuel data.
If someone tells you tariffs aren’t inflationary, ask:
Who’s saying it?
What are they measuring?
And who’s paying?
My full breakdown/takedown of the government’s import cost report here…(link below, finish this post first, please).
This week’s ‘Econ Without the Ego: Quick Lesson.’
What are Treasury Securities?
We hear about them constantly in debt debates, fiscal forecasts, and Federal Reserve/Treasury Department updates. But what are they? Easy peasy explanations…
T-Bills (Treasury Bills): Short-term securities, used to cover immediate cash needs. Maturities from 4 weeks to 1 year.
T-Notes (Treasury Notes): Medium-term financing tools. Maturities of 2 to 10 years.
T-Bonds (Treasury Bonds): Long-term debt instruments, used for major obligations. Maturities of 20 to 30 years.
Each one reflects a piece of how the U.S. funds its operations and each comes with interest payments that now cost us over $1 trillion a year.
BTW: wealthy households love this… 1) they buy these treasuries 2) with the money they saved from tax advantages 3) then collect the interest payments 4) that you and I pay (from our taxes). Read that last sentence a couple times. It bothers the poop out of me.
Wrap-Up
This week showed us two things:
The spin machine is in full swing. Trump and the GOP are repackaging old promises, calling new taxes “deals,” and selling headlines over substance.
The economic reality is more fragile than either side wants to admit. Inflation isn’t over, it’s evolving. And we’re doing little to fix the deeper problems: rising structural costs, weak wage growth, and debt-fueled budgets that we are pretending we can afford.
Times are ah changing. Hectic. Hard to keep up with everything. Use me to save time, make me your source to stay current on all things economic that impacts us all. Join me on Substack. It’s free. ‘Econ Without the Ego.’
As always, thanks for reading.
George
